What changed, where the supply base is thin and what to do about it, for a 24-supplier watchlist, from public data every six hours.
Tobacco sector peers in severe freefall—Japan Tobacco down 19.3% and British American Tobacco down 3.5% on Friday; Sappi (printing substrates) also unexplained -13.7%—while shipping and water transport constraints tighten globally.
Japan Tobacco crashed 19.3% Friday (6.7× normal range) and British American Tobacco fell 3.5% the same day, with Philip Morris now recovering from earlier MEDIUM risk. Simultaneously, Sappi (your Medium-exposure printing substrate supplier in South Africa) dropped 13.7% Friday with no corroborating news, suggesting a sector or macro shock rather than a company-specific issue. World signals show severe constraints: Strait of Hormuz transits down 95% year-on-year, Rhine waterway levels critically…
Written by AI at 7 Nov, 17:29 UTC from the signals on this page; the signals themselves are below.
One pin per supplying country, coloured by what happened there; a grey ring marks standing country exposure.
Supplier countries, largest first:
Chokepoints:
Shipping lanes, rivers, energy and raw-material prices, and natural hazards near supplying sites. None of these shows up in a supplier's own news until it is already late.
Strait of Hormuz saw 4.4 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 95% fewer than the same week a year earlier (95.9); 10 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the oil price, which every oil-derived input follows.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw 27.3 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 17% fewer than the same week a year earlier (33.1); 9 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Red Sea leg of the Asia-Europe route.
Suez Canal saw 43.0 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 4% more than the same week a year earlier (41.0); 9 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Asia-Europe route.
Malacca Strait saw 202.7 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 16% fewer than the same week a year earlier (242.7); 8 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Asia-Europe route out of East Asia.
Taiwan Strait saw 247.0 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 7% more than the same week a year earlier (229.9); 8 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the main lane out of north-east Asia.
Panama Canal saw 27.3 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 9% fewer than the same week a year earlier (30.3); 5 watchlist suppliers are exposed through US exports to Asia.
Cape of Good Hope saw 92.0 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 3% more than the same week a year earlier (88.6); 10 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Asia-Europe diversion round Africa.
The Rhine at Kaub reads 10 cm (normal 208 cm, forecast 12-20 cm over the next two days), below the 40 cm mark, where barges carry only a fraction of a normal load; it is the route for AMCOR, Cerdia and CNT.
The Rhine at Maxau reads 311 cm (normal 496 cm), below the 335 cm mark, where barges carry only a fraction of a normal load; it is the route for AMCOR, Cerdia and CNT.
EU natural gas was $25.49 per MMBtu in Sep 2026, 131% above Sep 2025; it feeds into the energy bill of pulp and paper mills at 5 watchlist suppliers.
Aluminium was $3,283 a tonne in Sep 2026, 23% above Sep 2025; it feeds into foil and metallised packaging at AMCOR and GPI.
Brent crude was $107.03 a barrel on 3 Nov, 16% above its one-year median of $91.93 a barrel, after a -0.3% day (0.1x its usual daily move); it feeds into acetate tow, plastics, electronics and battery materials at 10 watchlist suppliers.
Wood pulp (US producer prices) was 223.0 (index 1982=100) in Sep 2026, level with Sep 2025; it feeds into board, printing substrates and fine papers at 7 watchlist suppliers.
Red alert for tropical cyclone MURASU-26 in India, 1-3 Nov, winds up to 157 km/h; ITC is based there.
Orange alert for drought in Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland (+25 more), 21 Dec 2025 to 5 Nov 2026, across 2,009,754 km²; 8 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Orange alert for drought in USA (+10 more), 21 Apr to 5 Nov, across 1,012,801 km²; 5 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Orange alert for tropical cyclone ARNAB-26 in India, 26-28 Oct, winds up to 222 km/h; ITC is based there.
Tropical cyclone CHAMPI-26 in China, Japan and South Korea (+2 more), 14-25 Oct: GDACS rated it red at its peak and green in its latest update; 8 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Standing structure, not today's news: categories with no second source, or with every source in one country. The 4 Critical-tier suppliers sit in 2 countries: Switzerland 2, China 2.
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No material news this cycle.
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