Demo data, for illustration. The watchlist and the exposure tier beside each supplier were set up for this demonstration; they are not any company’s own classification. The signals come from public sources.
Overall status
Red since 4 Nov 2026, 03:39 UTC: 4 days.
21 checks in the 7 days: 12 red, 9 amber.
What changed in the last 7 days
- ▼Macro pillar RED → GREEN6 Nov
- ▲6 Nov
- ▼6 Nov
- ▼6 Nov
- ▲Peers pillar GREEN → RED6 Nov
- ▼Suppliers pillar AMBER → GREEN6 Nov
- •6 Nov
- ▲6 Nov
21 more on the board.
Top 3 actions
Standing exposure
9 of 24 watchlist suppliers sit in 5 countries with a standing risk floor. It comes from where a supplier operates, not from anything that happened this week, and on its own it never turns the board amber or red.
- MEDIUMChina5 suppliers
US-China trade war, Taiwan risk, export controls on tech
Huizhou BYD Electronic (EMS, Critical tier) · Smoore (EMS, Critical tier) · EVE Energy (Batteries, High tier) · IP Sun (Printing Substrates, Medium tier) · Porton (Nicotine, Medium tier)
- MEDIUMFinland1 supplier
NATO frontline state, border with Russia
Stora Enso (Printing Substrates, Medium tier)
- MEDIUMIndia1 supplier
Border tensions with China and Pakistan
ITC (Nicotine, High tier)
- MEDIUMSouth Africa1 supplier
Economic instability, infrastructure challenges, energy crisis
Sappi (Printing Substrates, Medium tier)
- MEDIUMSouth Korea1 supplier
North Korea proximity, regional military tensions
Tae Young Filters (Filter Materials, Medium tier)
World signals
Conditions outside any single supplier: commodity prices, shipping chokepoints, river levels and natural hazards, with the watchlist suppliers each one touches.
What is driving it
- Strait of Hormuz: transits down 95% on a year earlier (week to 1 Nov)
- Rhine at Kaub 10 cm, below the 40 cm mark
- Rhine at Maxau 311 cm, below the 335 cm mark
- EU natural gas 131% above Sep 2025
- Red tropical cyclone alert in India
- Aluminium 23% above Sep 2025
- Orange drought alert in Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland (+25 more)
- Orange drought alert in USA (+10 more)
- Orange tropical cyclone alert in India
Commodities
- EU natural gasseverity severe25.49 USD/MMBtu+131.7%
EU natural gas was $25.49 per MMBtu in Sep 2026, 131% above Sep 2025; it feeds into the energy bill of pulp and paper mills at 5 watchlist suppliers.
Touches Stora Enso, IP Sun, Sappi, SWM International, Delfort · as of 1 Sep
- Aluminiumseverity notable3,283 USD/t+23.7%
Aluminium was $3,283 a tonne in Sep 2026, 23% above Sep 2025; it feeds into foil and metallised packaging at AMCOR and GPI.
- Brent crudeseverity quiet107.0 USD/bbl+16.4%
Brent crude was $107.03 a barrel on 3 Nov, 16% above its one-year median of $91.93 a barrel, after a -0.3% day (0.1x its usual daily move); it feeds into acetate tow, plastics, electronics and battery materials at 10 watchlist suppliers.
Touches Daicel, Eastman, Cerdia, Tae Young Filters, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy, Weener, Rosti, Jabil · as of 3 Nov
- Wood pulp (US producer prices)severity quiet223.0 index 1982=100+0.3%
Wood pulp (US producer prices) was 223.0 (index 1982=100) in Sep 2026, level with Sep 2025; it feeds into board, printing substrates and fine papers at 7 watchlist suppliers.
Touches AMCOR, GPI, Stora Enso, IP Sun, Sappi, SWM International, Delfort · as of 1 Sep
Shipping chokepoints
- Strait of Hormuzseverity severe4.40 transits/day-95.4%
Strait of Hormuz saw 4.4 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 95% fewer than the same week a year earlier (95.9); 10 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the oil price, which every oil-derived input follows.
Touches Daicel, Eastman, Cerdia, Tae Young Filters, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy, Weener, Rosti, Jabil · as of 1 Nov
- Bab el-Mandeb Straitseverity quiet27.30 transits/day-17.7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw 27.3 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 17% fewer than the same week a year earlier (33.1); 9 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Red Sea leg of the Asia-Europe route.
Touches IP Sun, Daicel, Tae Young Filters, Fuji, ITC, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 1 Nov
- Suez Canalseverity quiet43 transits/day+4.9%
Suez Canal saw 43.0 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 4% more than the same week a year earlier (41.0); 9 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Asia-Europe route.
Touches IP Sun, Daicel, Tae Young Filters, Fuji, ITC, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 1 Nov
- Malacca Straitseverity quiet202.7 transits/day-16.5%
Malacca Strait saw 202.7 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 16% fewer than the same week a year earlier (242.7); 8 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Asia-Europe route out of East Asia.
Touches IP Sun, Daicel, Tae Young Filters, Fuji, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 1 Nov
- Taiwan Straitseverity quiet247 transits/day+7.5%
Taiwan Strait saw 247.0 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 7% more than the same week a year earlier (229.9); 8 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the main lane out of north-east Asia.
Touches IP Sun, Daicel, Tae Young Filters, Fuji, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 1 Nov
- Panama Canalseverity quiet27.30 transits/day-9.9%
Panama Canal saw 27.3 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 9% fewer than the same week a year earlier (30.3); 5 watchlist suppliers are exposed through US exports to Asia.
Touches GPI, Eastman, SWM International, Texas Instruments, Jabil · as of 1 Nov
- Cape of Good Hopeseverity quiet92 transits/day+3.9%
Cape of Good Hope saw 92.0 ship transits a day in the week to 1 Nov, 3% more than the same week a year earlier (88.6); 10 watchlist suppliers are exposed through the Asia-Europe diversion round Africa.
Touches IP Sun, Sappi, Daicel, Tae Young Filters, Fuji, ITC, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 1 Nov
Rivers
- Rhine at Kaubseverity severe10 cm
The Rhine at Kaub reads 10 cm (normal 208 cm, forecast 12-20 cm over the next two days), below the 40 cm mark, where barges carry only a fraction of a normal load; it is the route for AMCOR, Cerdia and CNT.
- Rhine at Maxauseverity severe311 cm
The Rhine at Maxau reads 311 cm (normal 496 cm), below the 335 cm mark, where barges carry only a fraction of a normal load; it is the route for AMCOR, Cerdia and CNT.
Natural hazards
- Tropical cyclone MURASU-26severity severe157.4 km/h
Red alert for tropical cyclone MURASU-26 in India, 1-3 Nov, winds up to 157 km/h; ITC is based there.
Touches ITC · as of 3 Nov
- Drought in Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland (+25 more)severity notable2,009,754 km2
Orange alert for drought in Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland (+25 more), 21 Dec 2025 to 5 Nov 2026, across 2,009,754 km²; 8 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Touches AMCOR, Cerdia, Delfort, CNT, Tenowo, Infineon, Weener, Rosti · as of 5 Nov
- Drought in USA (+10 more)severity notable1,012,801 km2
Orange alert for drought in USA (+10 more), 21 Apr to 5 Nov, across 1,012,801 km²; 5 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Touches GPI, Eastman, SWM International, Texas Instruments, Jabil · as of 5 Nov
- Tropical cyclone ARNAB-26severity notable222.2 km/h
Orange alert for tropical cyclone ARNAB-26 in India, 26-28 Oct, winds up to 222 km/h; ITC is based there.
Touches ITC · as of 28 Oct
- Tropical cyclone CHAMPI-26severity quiet296.3 km/h
Tropical cyclone CHAMPI-26 in China, Japan and South Korea (+2 more), 14-25 Oct: GDACS rated it red at its peak and green in its latest update; 8 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Touches IP Sun, Daicel, Tae Young Filters, Fuji, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 25 Oct